Portfolio Performance: Month 11 & 12 & Thoughts on Yearly Performance
Months 11 and 12, the last 2 months of the year unfortunately were not successful, in fact they were the 2 worst months of the whole year. Their performance was -28.71% & -22.40% respectively. So let’s get the obvious stuff out of the way first: I am not quite at the level I hoped I would be just yet. I messed up my stellar record in the end somewhat, but more than I messed it up it is the result of my strategy which, although highly profitable, at the same time remains highly volatile. So the year’s ending is clearly pointing out there are still holes in my game which need to be filled.
Portfolio Performance: Month 11
|October 22, 2015||November 20, 2015|
|Time Weighted Rate of Return||-28.71%|
Portfolio Performance: Month 12
|November 20, 2015||December 21, 2015|
|Time Weighted Rate of Return||-22.40%|
The natural human response (and my first response) to my performance is that I have not succeeded. I had a big gain (+138% after 10 months in October and my peak equity was actually north of 280,000$ at one point) and I let most of it slip away. However let’s look past the initial response and try to analyze my performance a little more constructively. In an introductory post when this blog got started I said that any double digit gain would be considered a success: HighProTrading’s trading strategy and what results to expect. Using the criterion that I set myself in the beginning, this year is considered a successful year. Remember I started with 100,000$ equity and a year ago I didn’t even know if I will be profitable or not. So did I lose 55% counting from my equity peak of 280,000$ or did I gain 32% starting from my initial equity value of 100,000$? Is the glass half empty or is it half full?
I remember thinking during the period my equity was at an all time high kicking myself for not making some trades which had I executed correctly would had taken my equity north of 300,000$ and now it doesn’t matter in the least. It doesn’t matter either because those circumstances that I kicked myself for “missing” never happened or I made mistakes in the future resulting in never reaching that equity level. Also I remember countless times making a mistake or overlooking something then wanting to make up for it by taking trades I should never had taken had I looked at the situation objectively. All of this resulted in over-trading which is one of if not the number one reason why my performance wasn’t much better. Couple that with being too emotionally attached to certain trade outcomes and as a result not thinking objectively and you get the two biggest holes in my performance.
I have done more than 3000 trades in a one year period. If I want to say that I’ve made progress I have to reduce that to at least a third in the next year. That would be strong proof that I took only the highest quality trades and not traded just for the sake of trading. That may still seem to much, however my portfolio consists of 50+ instruments and I actively follow much more so there has to be a substantial number of trades during a period of one year.
Those are my first impressions. I will write some further observations on the performance of my portfolio in the next post.
Yearly Performance - 2015
|December 22, 2014||December 21, 2015|
|Time Weighted Rate of Return||32.07%|
This is not investment advice and you are solely responsible for your actions.
For a full list of instruments traded in the lifetime of the portfolio and for performance go to the Performance section.